Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

This is actually the second time I’ve read Superforecasting. The first was back in 2021, when my brother-in-law recommended it just as I’d taken over the role of Regimental Intelligence Officer. (A very grand title, though in reality it mostly meant trying to “assess” what the enemy might do next. As I always said, "Much like a fireman doesn’t need to be on fire, an intelligence officer isn’t necessarily… intelligent!")

The book itself is brilliant. Tetlock and Gardner introduce the idea of “superforecasters”, ordinary people who, with the right approach, consistently make better predictions than seasoned experts. What struck me most is that it’s not about being a genius, it’s about process: breaking problems down, thinking in probabilities, staying curious, and most importantly being willing to update your views when new information comes in. (This is my key takeaway - You are only right, until you are not).

On this second read, I found myself picking up even more practical insights, especially around humility in decision-making and the importance of treating beliefs as hypotheses to be tested, not sacred truths. It’s a mindset that applies far beyond intelligence or politics, into finance, personal projects, or just navigating everyday uncertainty.

If there’s a downside, it’s that it’s not a page turning, one-sitting read. Some chapters are denser than others. But stick with it and you’ll come away with a new lens for looking at the future.

In short, Superforecasting is a compelling, thought provoking book that shows forecasting is a craft you can learn, not a mystical gift. I’d happily recommend it to anyone curious about making sense of a chaotic world and whats more it is available on Audible!